As CEO and Founder of Stock Teacher I'm Going To Personally Help You Learn To Make A Living Trading Stocks

You need to take our stock market course and learn to daytrade for a living. Always remember we are trading people, not stocks. Prices reflect peoples emotions and not the underlying fundamentals. People are very emotional about Tesla's Stock right now.

Update Nov 22 2024

The 2025 Stock Market Crash: What You Need to Know

Prepare for the 2025 stock market crash. Learn about inflation, reshoring, and rising capital costs ahead.

What Is the 2025 Stock Market Crash?

The 2025 stock market crash looms as a significant economic event. Factors like high inflation and shifting manufacturing dynamics drive this forecast. Understanding these changes is key to preparing for the challenges ahead.

Why Inflation Is Here to Stay

Inflation is not going anywhere soon. Analysts predict it will remain around 3-4% for the foreseeable future.

Factors Driving Persistent Inflation

1. Reshoring Manufacturing
   The U.S. and Mexico are becoming new manufacturing hubs. Moving production closer to home reduces reliance on overseas supply chains. While beneficial long-term, reshoring raises production costs in the short term.
2. End of Cheap Chinese Labor
   China's dominance in providing cheap labor is fading. Rising wages in China contribute to global inflation pressures.
3. Abandoning Just-in-Time Delivery
   Companies are ditching just-in-time delivery systems. This shift, prompted by recent supply chain disruptions, raises costs but increases reliability.

Higher Interest Rates Are Here to Stay

To combat inflation, central banks have increased interest rates. Unlike past years, these higher rates could persist.

Why High Interest Rates Matter

• Increased Borrowing Costs
  Businesses and consumers face higher costs for loans and mortgages.
• Impact on Investments
  Stocks and real estate may become less attractive as borrowing becomes more expensive.

The End of Low Prices

The days of cheap goods and services are over. Global economic shifts have made past prices unsustainable.

Factors Driving Higher Prices

• Reshoring raises costs for goods previously made overseas.
• Rising labor costs in China add to global price increases.
• Supply chain adjustments, like moving away from just-in-time delivery, demand higher capital investments.

What Does This Mean for the Stock Market?

Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gains

Markets may struggle in the short term as these changes take hold. However, reshoring could strengthen economies in a decade.

Limited Growth in 2025

The "2024 Christmas rally" seen during this holiday season should lose steam. Investors should manage expectations for market growth.

S&P ETFs May Underperform

Traditional S&P 500 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may not deliver the returns investors expect. Rising capital costs and inflation could drag down performance in 2025. Expectations are too high and missing earnings could spark a sell off.

Preparing for the Future

Investors must adapt to the new economic landscape. Here’s how:

1. Diversify Your Investments
   Look beyond S&P ETFs. Consider sectors benefiting from reshoring, like industrials or logistics.
2. Focus on Inflation-Resistant Assets
   Real estate, commodities, and inflation-linked bonds may offer better returns.
3. Plan for Higher Costs
   Expect rising prices in daily life and adjust budgets accordingly.

Conclusion

The 2025 stock market crash may mark a turning point in the global economy. With inflation and interest rates likely to remain high, preparation is crucial. By understanding these shifts and adjusting your strategies, you can navigate this challenging period effectively.

Stock Picks and Crypto

Stocks to keep on your radar. RIO (Rio Tinto) pays 13% and I found it when trading at 55 per share. Sorry for sharing a few months too late. Keep an eye if it dips back down to the high 50's. It's a 5 year long term hold. There is some Geo Political risk from its South African operations.

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, has been on an impressive rally. Many analysts predict it will peak between $100,000 and $113,000 in the near future. This price target isn’t just speculation; it’s grounded in fundamental market dynamics, adoption trends, and investor sentiment.

Key Drivers of Bitcoin's Potential Peak

One major factor propelling Bitcoin’s price is its fixed supply. The few people that own 80% off all BitCoins are not current selling any. They are sitting on it. With only 21 million coins available, scarcity plays a significant role. As institutional investors and retail buyers accumulate Bitcoin, demand outpaces the limited supply, driving prices higher. Remind yourself of "the Tulip Mania" from history.

The halving cycle, a key event in Bitcoin’s blockchain protocol, also contributes to price increases. During a halving, the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half, reducing the rate of new coin creation. Historically, these events precede significant price surges. The next halving, expected in 2028.

Bitcoin Halving: Past and Future Explained

Here’s an easier-to-follow breakdown of Bitcoin’s halving events. Each halving reduces the reward miners earn for processing Bitcoin transactions, which limits how quickly new Bitcoin enters circulation. This built-in scarcity helps drive Bitcoin’s value over time.

Halving Event	Date	Block Number	Reward per Block	% of Bitcoin Mined	Price on Halving Day (USD)
Bitcoin Launch	January 3, 2009	Block 0	50 BTC	50%	N/A
First Halving	November 28, 2012	Block 210,000	25 BTC	75%	$12.35
Second Halving	July 9, 2016	Block 420,000	12.5 BTC	87.5%	$650.53
Third Halving	May 11, 2020	Block 630,000	6.25 BTC	93.75%	$8,571.67
Fourth Halving	April 19, 2024	Block 840,000	3.125 BTC	96.88%	$63,842.56 (estimated)
Fifth Halving	Around Q2 2028	Block 1,050,000	1.5625 BTC	98.44%	To Be Determined
Sixth Halving	Around 2032	Block 1,260,000	0.78125 BTC	99.22%	To Be Determined
Seventh Halving	Around 2036	Block 1,470,000	0.390625 BTC	99.61%	To Be Determined
Eighth Halving	Around 2040	Block 1,680,000	0.1953125 BTC	99.80%	To Be Determined

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s rewards for miners are halved roughly every four years, reducing the rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation.
• Over 99% of all Bitcoin will be mined by 2040.
• Past halvings have often coincided with significant increases in Bitcoin’s price, as reduced supply creates upward pressure on value.

Understanding this cycle can help investors and enthusiasts anticipate market trends and prepare for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Institutional Adoption Boosts Credibility

Institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow. Major companies like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and Square have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Additionally, BlackRock and Fidelity have pursued Bitcoin ETFs, signaling mainstream acceptance. This institutional endorsement builds investor confidence, contributing to Bitcoin’s price momentum.

Retail Interest Fuels Growth

Retail investors remain a driving force behind Bitcoin's growth. Increasing accessibility through apps like Coinbase, Robinhood, and PayPal has brought cryptocurrency to the masses. Coupled with growing awareness and fear of missing out (FOMO), retail demand is a key factor in Bitcoin's climb toward $100K.

Why $100K–$113K?

The $100,000 mark holds psychological significance. Breaking it could unleash a wave of speculative buying, pushing the price even higher. Technical analysts point to $113,000 as a Fibonacci extension level, aligning with historical patterns of Bitcoin’s price movements.

What Comes After the Peak?

While $100K–$113K is achievable, it’s essential to consider what happens after Bitcoin reaches this range. Previous bull markets have shown that sharp corrections often follow euphoric peaks. Investors must prepare for volatility and consider long-term strategies.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s journey to $100K–$113K represents a combination of scarcity, adoption, and market dynamics. While the climb is exciting, investors should remain cautious, diversifying portfolios and staying informed about market trends. The cryptocurrency’s future remains promising, but the road will likely be bumpy.

Are We Headed for a 2025 Stock Market Crash?

Speculation about a massive 2025 stock market crash has dominated discussions in financial circles. While markets are cyclical and downturns are inevitable, the situation isn’t as apocalyptic as some suggest. Careful analysis reveals a more nuanced picture.

The 2021-2025 Market Dynamics

The assertion that the U.S. economy was in a "super bubble" in 2021 misrepresents the situation. While markets surged in the post-pandemic recovery, this growth reflected rebounding consumer demand and accommodative monetary policies. Businesses reopened, unemployment fell, and stimulus measures prevented a deeper recession.

Gaming stocks like Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) and Electronic Arts (EA) were not in a significant bubble during 2021. While their valuations rose due to increased gaming during the pandemic, long-term trends in the gaming industry remain strong, driven by innovation and expanding audiences.

The Truth About Inflation and Monetary Policy

Contrary to claims of "trillions and trillions of dollars" being recklessly printed, U.S. monetary policy in 2021 and beyond focused on targeted interventions to stabilize the economy. Interest rates, while historically low, were gradually raised starting in 2022 to combat inflation driven by supply chain disruptions and energy price spikes.

Inflation remains a concern, but forecasts suggest rates closer to 2.5%-3% annually in the medium term, not the sustained 3-4% cited. The Federal Reserve has tools to manage inflation, and a runaway scenario is unlikely under current conditions.

Housing Market Trends: A Complex Story

The housing market between 2021 and 2025 has been influenced by unique factors. During the pandemic, low interest rates and remote work drove demand for homes, creating a supply-demand imbalance. However, predictions of a massive housing crash have not materialized.

While some AirBnB owners faced challenges, mortgage default rates stayed low due to government relief programs and rising property values. Housing prices have moderated in 2024 and 2025 as interest rates rose, but the market remains stable, supported by demographic demand and limited housing inventory.

The Reality of Globalization and Geopolitics

Globalization has shifted, not ended. Supply chains have been restructured as nations prioritize resilience and regionalization over cost minimization. For example, the U.S. and Mexico are increasing their manufacturing capabilities.

China has not closed its borders permanently, and global trade continues, albeit with adjustments. While geopolitical tensions involving Russia and NATO are real, the narrative of World War III "brewing" is sensationalized. Diplomacy and deterrence mechanisms remain effective in preventing escalation.

The Economy and the Stock Market: A Tale of Two Realities

The stock market and the broader economy often move in different directions. During 2021, stock market gains reflected investor optimism, not an outright disconnect from economic fundamentals.

Interest rates are not "at zero." By 2024, the Federal Reserve has steadily increased rates to manage inflation and stabilize economic growth. Rising interest rates indicate a recovering economy, not an entirely negative trend.

The Bigger Picture

Markets are cyclical, and corrections are a natural part of economic systems. The idea of a "super bubble" in 2025 oversimplifies the interplay of inflation, interest rates, and global trade. Investors must stay informed and avoid alarmist predictions.

As always, success in markets requires due diligence, diversification, and a focus on long-term trends. While the risks are real, the broader picture is one of resilience and adaptation in an ever-changing economic landscape.